Probability Theory
Transforming Scores Into Probability
How to show what subjective scores do and do not tell you about probability of success on the basis of their past performance
Bayesian Statistics
Probability Theory
Bayes’ Theorem and (Corona-) Virus Testing
With the current Corona Crisis going on the world, many people demand more testing. But from a mathematical point of view, just randomly (!!) testing more is not the answer. The problem here lies within the false positives that may occur when two very unlikely events are highly correlated.
Bayesian Statistics
What is Bayesian Statistics?
A single, basic example: fully explained.
Bayesian Statistics
The Carter Catastrophe
A Bayesian argument for why humans will soon be extinct