Probability Theory
Why Probability Theory is Hard
It’s not because you’re stupid or weren’t concentrating in school
Graeme Keith
Probability Theory
Transforming Scores Into Probability
How to show what subjective scores do and do not tell you about probability of success on the basis of their past performance
Pragmatism
Probability for Pragmatists
What does it mean that a probability is “correct” and how could you possibly know?
Probability Theory
Monty Hall Revisited
How a causal framework can help you avoid the Monty Hall trap (and going home with a goat)